BUTUAN CITY -- After months of experiencing a steady influx of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, the Caraga Region is now under moderate risk, the Department of Health (DOH)-Caraga said Thursday, October 28. 

Dr. Arlaine Buhain, the DOH-Caraga's representative during the 43rd Regional Task Force on COVID-19 (RTF COVID-19) meeting, said that as of October 27, 2021, the entire region is now under moderate risk, having recorded an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 3.58. This is nearly a third of the 8.37 ADAR recorded three to four weeks prior. 

In epidemiology, the attack rate is the percentage of an at-risk population that contracts a disease during a specified time interval. It is the number of new cases in a city or province over a two-week period, divided by the population of the city or province. ADAR is considered high risk if it is 7 and above. 

Six areas in the region which were previously under high risk are now under moderate risk, as follows: 

• Agusan del Sur - from 8.41 to 4.45; 
• Bayugan City - from 10.93 to 3.80; 
• Butuan City - from 1.64 to 3.02; 
• Cabadbaran City - from 11.40 to 4.85; 
• Surigao City - from 7.28 to 3.30; 
• Tandang City - from 7.92 to 2.04

The following areas were able to maintain their moderate risk status but have recorded a decrease in their ADAR:

• Agusan del Norte - from 6.00 to 2.38; 
  
• Surigao del Norte - from 4.97 to 2.36
  
• Surigao del Sur - from 6.79 to 3.13

The Province of Dinagat Islands is still under moderate risk but has recorded an increase in its ADAR, from 3.75 to 5.55. 

The city of Bislig remains the only area still under high risk, having recorded an ADAR of 7.94. 

Despite the improvement, RTF chairperson and Office of Civil Defense (OCD)-Caraga chairperson Liza Mazo warned member agencies and local government units of the task force to remain cautious. The same call was made to the public and is urged to strictly follow the minimum health standard protocols.

"Despite this good news, there is always a message to be careful, to not to be complacent. Even hearing the news that our situation is okay, we still have to be careful. Everything is volatile in this pandemic," said Dir. Mazo.

As of writing, Caraga Region now has a total of 48,008 COVID-19 cases, with 988 still under isolation, 45,301 recoveries, and 1,719 deaths. (DMNR/PIA-Caraga)