CALAMBA CITY (PIA) – Despite the prevailing El Niño conditions, the state weather bureau has reminded disaster response officials to keep a close watch on possible weather disturbances beginning October until the first quarter of 2024.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) had projected the entry of four to seven tropical cyclones in the Philippine Area of Responsibility from October 2023 to March 2024.
“There is still a possibility of experiencing typhoons even during El Niño, and you can expect that the intensity of our typhoons will be stronger during El Niño,” Pagasa’s Bernadeth Lucillo said during the full council meeting of the Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management in Calabarzon last Thursday, September 28.
Pagasa reported that the peak of El Niño will occur between November 2023 and January 2024, potentially resulting in dry spells and droughts in certain areas of the Philippines.
Office of Civil Defense Director in Calabarzon Carlos Eduardo Alvarez III likewise advised disaster response managers to remain vigilant in monitoring weather disturbances and ensure that preparedness measures are in place and communicated effectively to all constituents.
“Our strength is not in our numbers but is embedded in the confidence and trust that we give to each other and each of our members in performing our collective aspirations for a safer, climate change adaptive and disaster resilient-region,” he added.
As of September 24, 2023, Pagasa said the provinces of Batangas, Cavite, and Quezon are already experiencing below-normal rainfall conditions for two consecutive months. Although normal rainfall is anticipated by the end of December 2023, Cavite is expected to enter a dry spell by the end of February 2024, experiencing below-normal rainfall for three consecutive months or significantly below-normal rainfall for two consecutive months.
“From August 30 to September 20, there has been consistent warming over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The area where we have warming has been expanding, indicating the presence of El Niño. Based on probability forecast using model output and expert judgment, there is a 60% chance that we will still experience El Niño until April-May-June 2024,” Lucillo said.
Pagasa said El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could bring negative impacts such as dry spells and drought in some areas of the country while over the western part of the country, above-normal rainfall conditions during the Southwest Monsoon or Habagat season may also be expected. (MBL/PIA4A)
