QUEZON CITY -- Experts, government officials and private sector representatives met recently to thresh out the proposed adoption of “micro-herd immunity” and “safe spaces” as strategies for the safe reopening of the Philippine economy. The town hall event was organized by GoNegosyo founder and Presidential Adviser on Entrepreneurship Joey Concepcion.
The event, entitled “How to Achieve a Merry Christmas and a Better New Year 2022”, was held last June 9, and registered close to 5,000 attendees via Zoom and more viewers on Facebook Live. The town hall meeting aimed to align government and private sector initiatives on post-pandemic roadmaps to recovery, specifically the push for micro-herd immunity and safe spaces.
Concepcion explained that micro-herd immunity is achieved when more than 80 percent of the population in a closed group has been vaccinated. Safe spaces, meanwhile, are meant to allocate separate spaces for vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Both strategies are seen as bridging solutions that will help facilitate the reopening of the economy ahead of achieving population protection and herd immunity for the country’s entire population.
Health Secretary Francisco Duque welcomed the suggestions, saying that the government is one with the private sector for a safe reopening of the economy. He shared that the government's unified strategic map to achieve the new normal is calibrated to take into account the economy, while at the same time maintaining the resilience of the country’s health care system.
Concepcion believes that targeting herd immunity in smaller, controlled environments such as offices, factories, or even households and communities is possible because these groups have already found ways of creating their own safe spaces. “It is possible in white-collar environments such as offices because these are closed systems and vaccine acceptance here is high,” he said.
"I believe that if we are able to vaccinate 80-plus percent of employees in a building, that means herd immunity is achieved in that group, so why don’t we increase their capacity?” Concepcion said. “We know we have to live with COVID until we are 100 percent vaccinated,” he said. “but remaining at a standstill is something that the Philippines cannot afford to do. The Philippines has a strong balance sheet, but it may not be strong enough,” he said.
"There are hundreds of buildings in the NCR. If we can have micro-herd immunity on that level, we can achieve herd immunity by next year and open the economy,” he said.
Ayala Land Offices President and CEO Carol Mills said that although work-from-home arrangements are convenient, there are benefits to working from the office, such as enhanced collaboration, innovation, and culture-building. “Returning employees to the office will also drive consumption and economic activity. It has a multiplier effect,” she said.
Prior to the introduction of micro-herd immunity and safe spaces as possible strategies, two milestones were identified for the lifting of restrictions and a return to normal: population protection by September-October, and herd immunity by the tail-end of 2021 or early 2022. There were also targets for cities within the NCR-plus area to achieve population protection and herd immunity. It is hoped that by aiming for smaller pockets of immunity within groups, businesses can resume operations and help restart the economy even before population protection or herd immunity.
"At 80 percent vaccination for an office, for example, it may be possible to raise capacity to 100 percent from the present 50 percent,” Concepcion said.
He believes that adopting this approach will also prepare businesses to take advantage of three factors that could further boost economic activity: Christmas spending, election spending, and government stimulus. “We need a roadmap to recovery. This is important so that consumers and business owners can confidently resume their normal activities; this will encourage banks to lend to businesses,” he said.
The approach echoes University of Santo Tomas professor and OCTA Research Fellow Fr. Nick Austriaco’s proposal to build herd immunity at every level of society and incentivize the groups that have achieved it. This can increase the desire to achieve herd immunity for one’s group because “Filipinos are extremely socially conscious and sensitive, and want to be on a par with their neighbors,” he said. This may also have a positive impact on LGUs’ vaccination rollouts as they tend to compete with, and try and learn best practices from, each other, observed Austriaco. Safe spaces, meanwhile, can protect the unvaccinated from unwitting carriers among the vaccinated, he said.
Health reform advocate Tony Leachon supports the concept of safe spaces, saying “this is the way to go” but cautioned that positivity rates must first go down. He also emphasized that testing and tracing must remain a priority, especially while vaccine supplies remain limited and new variants are emerging.
Leachon recommends that efforts extend to creating environments that protect occupants. “There should be teams of engineers and architects to redesign buildings and ensure long-term protection of the community,” he said. Metro Manila Development Authority Chairman Benhur Abalos took it further and said there might be a need to revisit the building codes and look at policies regarding ventilation.
OCTA Fellow and University of the Philippines professor Ranjit Rye agreed, saying minimum public health standards should now go beyond masks and handwashing to include the creation of safe areas where there is adequate ventilation and where people are confident that they will not catch the virus. “It should be a multi-pronged approach,” he said. He added that the country also needs to stick to the plan to prioritize the NCR-plus areas so that the country can manage the pandemic, exit COVID, and restart the economy.
Private sector representatives were also present to weigh in on micro-herd immunity and safe spaces. Salon owner and Philippine Franchise Association regional director Federico Moreno offered that the health and wellness industry has already achieved micro-herd immunity as 90 percent of employees in the NCR are already vaccinated. Given that, the sector is asking that the current capacity of 40 percent be increased to 60 percent; that massage centers be allowed to operate; and that public transportation be expanded.
McDonald’s Philippines Managing Director Margot Torres suggested integrating the safe spaces concept with the safety seals now being issued to qualified establishments, and to include ventilation among the criteria.
The private sector also raised the need for the government to standardize vaccine cards or vaccination documentation, and come up with unified guidelines. Industry-specific concerns were also brought up, including the need for unified travel policies, the lifting of quotas for inbound travelers, and the need to continue the government’s stimulus programs.
Notwithstanding the proposals to expedite the reopening of the Philippine economy, experts pointed out during the forum that current data suggest a positive note for the Philippines. Technical Advisory Group member Edsel Salvana observed that deaths per million in the Philippines are low (228) compared to the US (1,867), where vaccines are widely available. The Philippines also has a relatively low case fatality rate at 1.73, and has learned how to take care of COVID-critical patients.
Vaccinations are also gathering speed as supplies continue to arrive. Deputy Chief Implementer of National Policy on COVID-19 Sec. Vince Dizon said that the Philippines is now able to vaccinate as many as 300,000 people daily when supplies are available. “We can get the doses done but what we need is the supply. The good news is, the vaccines are coming,” he said. He emphasized, though, that although vaccines are important, the country needs to continue with its Prevent-Detect-Isolate-Treat strategy. “It’s the formula for success,” Dizon said. For his part, Inter-Agency Task Force on COVID-19 co-Chairperson Sec. Karlo Nograles assured that the government continues to negotiate for more vaccines. “Our economic recovery hinges on vaccines,” he said, and asked the private sector to help convince more Filipinos to get vaccinated.
"We are at a crossroads,” said Concepcion. “There is light at the end of the tunnel, but micro-herd immunity is something we can do right now,” he said. “We cannot support an economy without people moving around, but we cannot expect people to move without ensuring their safety,” said Concepcion. “Philippines, Inc. will survive only if we all do our part.”
The “How to Achieve a Merry Christmas and a Better New Year 2022” townhall meeting is an initiative of GoNegosyo’s Let’s Go Bakuna campaign. The speakers were Health Secretary Francisco Duque III; Cabinet Secretary Karlo B. Nograles; Testing Czar Secretary Vince Dizon; MMDA Chairman Atty. Benjamin Benhur Abalos; Octa Research Fellow Professor Ranjit Rye; LT Group President Michael Tan; and McDonald’s Philippines Managing Director Margot Torres; European Union to the Philippines Chargé d’Affaires Rafael de Bustamante Tello; Institute of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology Director Dr. Edsel Salvana; A Dose of Hope Vaccine Initiative Program Lead Josephine Romero; Professor of Biology and Theology at Providence College Fr. Nicanor Austriaco; and Health Reform Advocate Dr. Tony Leachon. The meeting was moderated by Rico Hizon and Pia Hontiveros. (MCG/PIA-IDPD/Go Negosyo)
